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Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Was my gas price prediction right?

On April 11th, I made an easy 1-month prediction for where gas prices would be. I said:

Today, April 11, 2011
National: 3.78
Fresno: 4.09

May 4:
National: 4.04
Fresno: 4.45

May 15:
National: 3.99
Fresno: 4.39

How correct was I?


According to Gasbuddy.com
May 4 was
National: 3.955
Fresno: 4.22

So my national guess was pretty damn close (5 cents off), but my "california premium" was too high.

For May 15, I forecast that gas prices would go DOWN. Controversial, considering memorial day approaches. I predicted a massive 17 cent drop in Fresno and only a 5 cent drop nationally.

How close was I?

May 15:
National: 3.93
Fresno: 4.12

So I nailed the drop in prices (10 cents in Fresno in only 11 days) and wasn't too far off nationally (3 cent drop).

In fact, my randomly chosen date of May 4th just happened to be the peak in prices.

And by "just happened to be" I mean "I totally nailed it"

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Goldamn Sachs, feel free to leave a comment if you're interested in hiring me for my amazing prediction abilities.

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